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While Turkey has promised to avoid sharing the collected data with the Russians, U.S. officials fear that an already mercurial relationship with Turkey could erode further, or that Russian intelligence might surreptitiously harvest the data anyway. But Binnie, the IHS Markit analyst, doubts that the real issue here is technical, noting that a proper integration of the two systems would probably be far too complicated and expensive for Ankara. He suspects it may be an excuse being leveled at Turkey by an ally frustrated over a host of other issues, namely detentions of U.S. residents and citizens by Ankara, the regime’s increasing ties with Russia, constant and credible allegations Turkey has helped Iran avoid sanctions, as well as Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian approach to domestic politics.

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“I am not sure how compromising the F-35’s capabilities will be an issue going forward,” says Binnie. “Denial of the F-35 to Turkey might be more of a punishment, justified by a possible threat to all F-35 operators around the world.”

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